Punxatawney Phil, the central character of the annual rite of winter known as Groundhog’s Day, isn’t great at his job. His predictions are wrong more often than they are right. Theresa Crimmins, the director of the U.S. National Phenology Network, said that while Punxatawney Phil is not a reliable predictor of spring’s arrival, phenology does offer scientific backing for other seemingly superstitious axioms about the natural world. Phenology is the study of how seasonal events in the lives of plants and animals shift according to the weather and climate, such as how fish or migratory birds respond to the temperature of water and air. While folklore often supposes animal behavior portends future weather events, in reality, flora and fauna react to weather and climate. Numerous tried-and-true proverbs about the natural world come from Native American populations. “One example is planting corn when oak leaves are the size of a squirrel’s ear,” notes an article on phenology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Native Americans made the observation centuries ago that the soil was warm enough to prevent seeds from rotting, yet it was still early enough to reap a suitable harvest if corn was planted at this time.” Crimmins points out that there are plenty of other predictors for coming ecological events spelled out in the leaves, berries and flowers of plants. For example, the shadblow serviceberry is a small tree that is native to parts of eastern North America, and it’s believed that its name came from the fact that it bears flowers at the same time of year that shad fish begin their river migration. The Lenape and other Native American populations made note of the phenomenon long ago and prepared to fish when the plant began to bloom. There is research out there that suggests some animals may possess an innate sense that helps them detect when a disaster is on the way. Golden-winged warblers, for example, evacuated an area of Tennessee more than 24 hours before a devastating string of tornadoes hit the area, according to a December 2014 study published in the journal Current Biology. The study authors predicted the migrant birds listened to infrasound — sound at frequencies too low for humans to hear — associated with the storms and heeded it as a warning sign. Researchers in Germany also looked into whether various species of animals could detect an oncoming earthquake. The scientists found that, collectively, animals including cows, sheep and dogs exhibited more activity before an earthquake up to 20 hours in advance, according to a report from Germany’s Max Planck Society, a nonprofit association of research institutes. There is also truth to the notion that crickets can act as nature’s thermometer. The insects are ectotherms, meaning their body temperature changes with that of their surrounding environment — and they routinely chirp faster in warmer weather. According to Dolbear’s Law, a formula describing this association between crickets and weather, “you can count the number of chirps per 15 seconds, add 40, and that will give you the temperature in Fahrenheit,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notes. Frogs also deliver unique calls when it’s about to rain. “Many twentieth-century herpetologists have confirmed and clarified the traditional observation that various species of frogs sometimes utter a distinctive vocalization, a ‘rain call,’ a short time before wet weather,” said Dr. Gordon Miller, a professor emeritus of environmental studies at Seattle University. The calls “are perhaps triggered by a rise in humidity prior to precipitation,” Miller said. (SD-Agencies) Words to Learn 相關詞匯 【物候學】wùhòuxué phenology the study of how seasonal events in the lives of plants and animals change according to the weather and climate 【靠譜的】kàopǔ de tried-and-true used many times in the past and proven to work well 普蘇塔尼鎮的土撥鼠菲爾是每年冬天“土撥鼠日”的主角，但他并不勝任天氣預報員的工作，因為他的預報多數時候不準。 美國國家物候學網絡主任特雷莎?克里米明斯說，雖然菲爾不能預測春天什么時候來，但物候學為有些看似迷信的自然諺語提供了科學依據。 物候學研究天氣和氣候變化如何影響動植物在不同季節的行為，例如魚或候鳥對水溫和氣溫變化會做出反應。 雖然民間通常認為動物行為預示未來的天氣事件，但實際上，動植物是對天氣和氣候做出反應。許多關于自然的諺語來自美洲原住民。 威斯康星大學麥迪遜分校的一篇物候學的文章指出：“其中一個例子是，當橡樹的葉子長到松鼠耳朵那么大時就可以種植玉米了。幾個世紀前，美洲原住民觀察到，那個時候土壤的溫度足以防止種子腐爛，而且玉米成熟時有足夠的時間收獲。” 克里米明斯說，植物的葉、漿果和花也提供了預示未來生態事件的線索。 例如，滸苔藪莓是一種原產于北美東部部分地區的小喬木，它的名字來源非常有趣，每年滸苔魚開始洄游的時候，藪莓就會開花。雷納佩族和其他美洲原住民很早就注意到了這一現象，這種植物開花了，他們就準備捕魚。 研究表明，某些動物可能擁有一種與生俱來的感知力，幫助它們察覺即將發生的災難。 例如，根據2014年12 月發表在 《當代生物學》雜志上的一項研究，金翅鶯在田納西州某地遭受一連串毀滅性龍卷風襲擊前24小時飛走了。 研究作者估計這些候鳥聽到了與風暴有關的次聲波（頻率太低，人類無法聽到），收到了預警。 德國的研究人員還研究了動物能否感知即將發生的地震。根據非營利研究機構馬克斯?普朗克科學促進學會的報告，科學家發現包括牛、羊和狗在內的動物在地震發生前20小時會表現出煩躁不安。 蟋蟀是大自然的溫度計，這種說法也是有道理的。蟋蟀是外溫動物，體溫會隨周圍環境的變化而變化 ——溫暖天氣里，蟋蟀叫得更加急促。 美國國家海洋和大氣管理局指出，根據多爾貝爾定律，蟋蟀的叫聲頻率和溫度有線性關系：用蟋蟀每15秒鳴叫的次數加上40，就能得出環境的華氏溫度。 快下雨時青蛙會發出獨特的叫聲。 西雅圖大學環境研究名譽教授戈登?米勒博士說：“許多二十世紀的爬行動物學家證實了一個傳統說法，即青蛙有時會在潮濕天氣來臨前發出獨特的叫聲，稱為‘雨叫’。” 米勒說， “可能是降水前濕度上升引發了”這種叫聲。 (Translated by Debra) | 